摘要:在市场竞争日益激烈的当今，中国农业银行的财务安全问题引起了银行内外的广泛关注，相对于其他企业而言，商业银行的财务制度一般更加健全，其财务数据也相对更加规范和透明。但与此同时，商业银行应该具有更高的风险意识，以加强风险管理、建立完善而准确的财务风险预警系统。为此，建立财务预警模型，及时预测风险，并采取相应措施，将风险消灭于萌芽阶段，就成为中国农业银行财务管理的一项重要内容。

　　　本文介绍了财务预警研究的背景，并强调了进行财务预警研究的重要意义。首先，分析国内外学者对企业财务危机界定的研究，并结合我国实际情况对中国农业银行财务危机进行了合理的界定。其次，从内外两个方面对商业银行财务危机的成因进行分析。最后，通过分析构建合理的商业银行财务危机预警模型，评价农行财务风险现状，探讨其财务预警策略。

关键词  财务预警；商业银行；Z模型；F模型

Abstract:Nowadays, the market competition is growing more and more fierce. The financial crisis problems of agricultural bank of China arouse wide concern both inside and outside the bank. Compared with other enterprises, commercial bank have more comprehensive financial system and their financial data are more regular and open. In the meantime, commercial bank should have higher crisis awareness so that they can strengthen crisis management and set up a thorough and accurate financial crisis warning system. It is important to set up financial warning models, predict crisis and take corresponding measures to wipe out crisis early for financial management of agricultural bank of China.

　　　This paper introduces the background of the financial warning research and emphasizes its importance. First of all, it analyses domestic and foreign scholars’ reseaches of the definition of financial crisis and definites the financial crisis in agricultural bank of China under the situation in our country. Secondly, it analyses the causes of financial crisis from two aspects. At last, it evaluates the financial position of the bank and discusses the strategies of financial warning through building reasonable financial warning models.

Keywords  Financial Warning  Commercial Bank  Z Score Model  F Score Model