摘要:近几年以来，我国酿酒行业进入了高速发展时期，酿酒行业作为食品饮料行业的重要组成部分,它在在国民经济发展中起到非常重要的作用。随着居民消费水平的不断提高，对酿酒行业的需求也随着变大，进而促使我国酿酒行业规模扩张不断的加快。国家也逐渐的采取了严格的宏观政策对其控制，如对酿酒行业新进入者的门槛越来越高、要求酿酒行业减少环境污染等，酿酒行业出现财务危机的可能性也在加大。在这种严格与竞争激烈的环境下，建立一个财务预警系统来预测企业财务危机是非常必要的。灵敏度高的财务预警系统可以使企业的风险达到很好的可预见性，可控性，以及可改善性。

　　　本文是建立在阅读和研究了国内外有关财务预警模型理论和研究成果的基础上，结合我国酿酒行业的发展现状，探索财务预警模型对我国酿酒行业的适用性。以近几年的财务报表数据为研究基础，首先对Z值模型在我国酿酒行业上市公司的适用性和有效性进行实证性研究分析。其次在对Y分数模型对我国酿酒行业的适用性和实证分析。最后对Z值和Y分数两种模型进行对比，看哪一种模型更适合酿酒行业。为此，本文选取了2010年到2012年近三年的财务数据对酿酒行业上市公司的财务预警进行了实证性分析。

关键字： 酿酒行业的发展现状；Z值模型；Y分数模型；结论

ABSTRACT:In recent years, the wine industry in China has entered a period of rapid development, the wine industry as an important part of the food and beverage industry, it plays a very important role in the development of the national economy. As people consumption level rise ceaselessly, the wine industry demand becomes bigger, the scale expansion of China's wine industry continues to accelerate. The state has adopted strict control of the macroeconomic policies, such as new entrants to the wine industry threshold is getting higher and higher requirements for the wine industry, reducing environmental pollution and so and, the possibility of financial crisis brewing industry also increased. In this environment, the establishment of a financial early warning mechanism of good is a necessary measure for an enterprise. Financial early warning system is of high sensitivity, can make the risk of the enterprise achieve good predictability, controllability, and can improve.

     This paper is based on reading and studying the domestic and foreign financial early-warning model theory and research results, combined with the current situation of the development of the wine industry in China, to explore the applicability of the financial early-warning model of the wine industry in china. In recent years, the financial report data as the research foundation, the Z model for empirical analysis on listing Corporation in China's wine industry the applicability and validity. Secondly on the applicability and empirical analysis of the wine industry in China Y fraction model. Finally, Comparison of the Z value model and the Y fraction model, to see what kind of model is more suitable for the wine industry. Based on this, the wine industry listing corporation in 2010 to 2012 three annual report data for the early warning research and analysis.

Keywords: Development of the wine industry; Z value model; The Y fraction model; conclusion