摘要:随着市场经济的日益飞速发展，对于财务危机预警的研究越来越受到重视。我国的证券市场发展尚不完善，近年来由于外部市场竞争的加剧和内部经营管理的不善，财务危机的现象的出现已很普遍。但企业陷入财务危机并不是瞬间的，而是一个逐步渐渐的过程。大多数陷入财务危机泥潭的企业起初都是正常发展经营的，直至其自身决策失误或者不可抗力的原因从而陷入财务困境，管理层若不够重视则愈演愈烈导致财务危机的出现。由此可见，财务危机是有征兆的，是可以预知的，我们也就就可以通过一定的办法预测甚至防止或控制财务危机的扩大。所以为了在激烈的市场竞争中谋求生存与发展，我国上市公司必须建立财务危机预警系统，避免其企业财务陷入危机的泥潭之中。

　　　本文在财务危机预警的理论知识的基础上，运用财务管理学的理论指导，再将定性与定量分析法相结合，案例分析法与文献调查法互补应用的研究方法。选取杭州解百集团股份有限公司为样本结合最具代表性、最成功的的Z-Score预警方法进行分析，分析得出Z-Score预警模型对于我国具有一定的局限性的结论。所以应当结合我国的实际情况做出相应的调整，选择或者修正研究出符合公司自身发展特点的财务危机预警系统。

关键词  财务风险；财务危机；财务危机预警；财务指标

Abstract:　With the rapid development of the market economy, the financial crisis early warning and more attention. The development of China's securities market is not perfect, in recent years due to poor management of the external market competition and internal management, the emergence of the phenomenon of the financial crisis has become commonplace. But the financial crisis is not instantaneous, but a step-by-step process gradually. Most enterprises fall into the quagmire of the financial crisis are initially normal development of the business until its own decision-making errors or force majeure to financial trouble, management not pay enough attention lead to the emergence of the financial crisis intensified. This shows that the financial crisis is some signs, is predictable, then the financial crisis early warning can predict or even prevent or control the expansion of the financial crisis, and also avoid the same crisis again. In order to survive and development in the fierce market competition, China's listed companies should establish the financial crisis early warning system to avoid the quagmire of its corporate financial crisis.

　　　In this paper, the basic theory and accounting, financial management and other disciplines of the financial early warning system theory as a guide, the use of normative analysis and case studies combined, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method. Select Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co., Ltd. combined with the most representative sample, the most successful of the Z-Score early warning analysis, analysis of Z-Score warning model for our country has certain limitations conclusions. So it should be combined with China's actual situation and make appropriate adjustments, select or correction developed in line with the characteristics of the development of the company's own financial crisis early warning system.

Keywords  Financial risk  Financial crisis  Financial crisis early warning     Financial indicators