摘要：本文以加州比萨坊(California Pizza Kitchen, 简称CPK)从2005年到2009年的财务报表为研究对象，并结合2010年的公司公告，全面系统的分析研究该公司的财务总体情况及综合财务能力。基于该公司近五年的财务信息，我们对未来五年的发展做出合理的假设，并预测未来五年的财务状况。由于股票价格反映了对未来的预期，我们将根据预测的财务报表，采用自由现金流量模型、剩余收益评估模型和Crystal Ball风险评估软件来估算实际的股票价格并与市场价格比较研究。

关键词: 财务报表; 自由现金流量模型; 剩余收益评估模型; Crystal Ball

ABSTRACT：The paper mainly focuses on the analysis of financial statements of California Pizza Kitchen，Inc (CPK). We consolidated the recent five years’ financial statements from year 2005 to year 2009. Based on these information and CPK’s recent management decisions and analysis, we could forecast the latest five year’s financial statements from year 2010 to year 2014. As stock price represents a company’s future cash flows, we will use forecasted financial statements as with Free Cash Flow Valuation Model, Residual Operating Income Valuation Model and Crystal Ball software to calculate the present stock price. Comparing the calculated price with the market price, we could know how well our forecasted financial statement is and whether the valuation models works well for our company.

Keywords: Financial Statement Analysis; Free Cash Flow Valuation; Residual Operating Income Valuation; Crystal Ball